August 2026, the hottest topic in the global semiconductor market is no longer the computing power arms race of AI chips, but the epic price increase of storage chips triggered by this competition. From upstream wafer foundries to downstream整机 brands, a price transmission chain running through the entire industry chain is being redefined. The latest industry data shows that after DRAM contract prices cumulatively increased by more than 150% in two consecutive quarters, the spot market shows signs of high consolidation, but the deep-seated contradictions of supply-demand imbalance are far from being resolved - Apple's emergency purchase of mobile DRAM, Yangxin Storage's public refusal to lower prices, Musk's warning that storage demand growth is ten times that of supply, all signals point to the same conclusion: this round of storage market is not an ordinary cyclical rebound, but a long-term turning point where AI reshapes the semiconductor supply-demand structure.
Contract prices surge in two quarters, spot prices consolidate at high levels: market enters "gear shift" period
Looking back at the past two quarters, the price trend of storage chips can be described as "vertical take-off". According to statistics from TrendForce, global DRAM contract prices increased by about 90% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, and NAND contract prices also increased by nearly 60%; in the second quarter, although the growth momentum has eased, general DRAM contract prices still increased by 58% to 63% quarter-on-quarter, and NAND Flash contract prices increased by 70% to 75% quarter-on-quarter. SK Hynix also confirmed this trend in its financial report: its DRAM average price increased by about 65% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, and then increased by about 30% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter.
Compared with the fierce attack in the contract market, the spot market entered a high-level consolidation stage in early August. The latest spot price trend report released by TrendForce shows that the average price of mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200MT/s颗粒 increased by only 0.17% week-on-week to 42.11 US dollars, while 4Gb DDR4 and 2Gb DDR3 continued to rise, but the momentum was significantly weaker than in late July, and buyers and sellers have not yet reached a consensus on prices, with limited trading volume. In terms of NAND, the spot price of 512Gb TLC Wafer increased by 4.55% week-on-week to 20.125 US dollars, but in the context of lack of large-scale procurement support, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. Analysts point out that the temporary cooling of spot prices does not mean a market reversal, but more of a "gear shift and adjustment" after a sharp rise, accumulating momentum for the next round of contract price negotiations.
AI suction effect: three major original factories "give up pawns to protect cars", long-term agreements lock capacity
The fundamental driving force of this round of price increase is the suction effect of AI computing power construction on storage capacity. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and other major original factories have fully shifted capacity to high-margin HBM and DDR5 since 2025, successively reducing or even discontinuing mature product lines such as DDR4. At the same time, cloud vendors and AI giants have locked capacity in advance through long-term supply agreements (LTA) - Micron signed 16 strategic customer agreements, directly locking about 20% of DRAM output and one-third of NAND capacity in the next five years; Samsung is said to have included about 70% of storage output in the long-term agreement system. This means that even new capacity is difficult to flow to the spot market in the short term, and supply elasticity is systematically compressed.
The demand-side outbreak is even more violent. Musk recently stated publicly that storage supply only grows by about 20% per year, while AI-driven demand growth is as high as 200% or even higher, and "severe imbalance" has become the industry consensus. Guolian Minsheng Securities estimates that global AI semiconductor demand may increase by 60% to 100% year-on-year in 2027, while new effective supply is almost zero, and the supply-demand gap will further expand. A Samsung Electronics executive also admitted at the earnings meeting that it usually takes more than three years from the start of construction of a new wafer fab to form effective capacity, and it will be difficult to see new supply with scale significance until at least 2028, and the supply tension may even intensify in 2027.
Industry chain chain reaction: "price increase mobilization" from wafers,颗粒 to整机
The price increase tide is being transmitted along the industry chain. The wafer foundry sector responded first: specialty process foundry VIS disclosed in its second-quarter earnings conference call that capacity utilization has increased from over 80% in the first quarter to nearly 90% in the second quarter, and predicts that ASP will increase by 2% to 4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, and the contract price increase in 2027 will not be lower than that in 2026. At the industry level, 8-inch and mature process production lines have successively raised prices by 5% to 10% since the beginning of the year, with DDIC, power management and other categories following the increase.
The terminal consumer market has experienced a rare "full-line rise". According to a summary by 21st Century Business Herald, the weight of storage chips in smartphone material costs has jumped from 10% to 15% in the past to 20% to 30%. Counterpoint Research data shows that the average contract price of smartphone storage chips in the first half of 2026 increased by more than 200% compared to the end of 2025; according to year-on-year configuration calculation, the cost of high-end models in the third quarter increased by nearly 50% compared to the same period last year. In the market, the 16GB DDR5 memory bar has risen from 450 yuan to 1800 yuan in Huaqiangbei, an increase of 300%; the retail price of 1TB solid-state drive has soared from about 410 yuan to 950 yuan. Yu Chengdong, Huawei's CEO, bluntly stated: "All mobile phones may have to undergo large-scale price increases in the future, otherwise they will be sold at a loss at the original price." Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other manufacturers have successively adjusted product prices, and the era of "high configuration and low price" for mobile phones is coming to an end.
Domestic storage bargaining power leaps forward: from "passive price following" to "active pricing"
The tight market supply and demand situation has also provided a rare pricing power window for China's storage industry. On August 6, it was reported that Yangxin Storage, a domestic DRAM leader, refused Apple's price reduction request and insisted on a quotation not lower than that of Samsung and SK Hynix. Industry analysis believes that this marks that Chinese storage manufacturers are shifting from passively accepting international pricing to actively participating in price games. At the same time, Jiangborong, BW Storage, Demingli and other module and controller manufacturers have achieved dozens of times year-on-year growth in net profit, and design companies such as GigaDevice have also received continuous capital increases. Many institutions predict that the global memory shortage may continue until 2027, and the profit recovery logic of the domestic storage chain will be further strengthened.
Super cycle new narrative: investment logic shifts from "profit peak" to "profit duration"
For investors, the most profound change in this round of market is the reconstruction of pricing logic. In the past, the storage industry followed the classic cycle of "price increase - expansion - oversupply - price reduction", and the market was priced around the profit peak; in the AI era, original factories may smooth out cyclical fluctuations through "Value over Bit" strategy, long-term agreements and prudent capital expenditures, making the market's focus shift from "how much profit can still rise" to "how long high profits can last". Ping An Securities expects that the global semiconductor storage output value may increase by about 44% year-on-year to 1.28 trillion US dollars in 2027, with servers accounting for 64% of DRAM demand and 51% of NAND demand.
For the Singapore market, this round of market is also of profound significance. The 12-inch wafer fab VSMC, a joint venture of VIS located in Singapore, is scheduled to start production in the first quarter of 2027, and its capacity ramp-up speed is better than planned; the Southeast Asian semiconductor industry chain is accelerating expansion with the help of AI dividends. It can be predicted that against the background of a supply-demand gap that will last at least until 2027, the resonance of prosperity in storage and wafer foundry will become the most certain structural mainline of the global semiconductor market in the next few quarters. When layout, investors should not only be disturbed by short-term fluctuations in the spot market, but also grasp the long-term logic of AI reshaping the supply-demand structure - this storage super cycle driven by AI "suction" may just be in the middle.
