August 1, 2026, Singapore - After the dual game of consumer electronics weakness and AI computing power explosion, the advanced packaging track has emerged as a key variable affecting chip market trends and price movements. According to the latest industry news, TSMC CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) advanced packaging capacity has been fully booked by major AI chip manufacturers, with delivery periods further extended to more than 12 months, and some urgent orders quoted 30%-50% higher than standard processes. This phenomenon marks that the semiconductor industry is shifting from a single drive of "process shrinkage" to a new stage of "advanced process + advanced packaging" dual drive.
Supply-demand imbalance in advanced packaging: structural shortage caused by AI chips
The demand for high bandwidth, low latency, and heterogeneous integration in AI chips (such as GPUs, ASICs, HBMs) has made advanced packaging technology a key bottleneck for performance breakthrough. Taking flagship AI accelerators such as NVIDIA H100/H200 and AMD MI300 as examples, these chips all use advanced packaging solutions from TSMC or Samsung, tightly integrating logic chips with HBM memory chips. As the parameter scale of large models continues to expand in the second half of 2026, the procurement volume of AI training and inference chips by cloud service providers and AI startups has surged, directly leading to the supply-demand imbalance of CoWoS, InFO and other advanced packaging capacities.
TSMC leads the way, Samsung and Intel accelerate to catch up
TSMC currently accounts for about 60% of the global advanced packaging market share, and its CoWoS-S, CoWoS-R, CoWoS-L and other technical routes have the highest maturity. To alleviate the shortage, TSMC has expanded capacity in Zhubei, Longtan, Kaohsiung and other places, but the new capacity will not be fully released until 2027. Samsung Electronics is advancing through I-Cube (equivalent to CoWoS) and X-Cube in parallel, and actively seeks orders from major customers such as NVIDIA. Intel, based on EMIB and Foveros packaging technologies, is trying to gain a share in the AI server chip ecosystem. However, in the short term, the "TSMC or nothing" pattern is difficult to shake, and the pricing power of advanced packaging is firmly in the hands of a few manufacturers.
Semiconductor market differentiation intensifies, advanced packaging becomes the main force of price increase
This round of semiconductor market shows obvious structural differentiation. Against the background of mild rebound or even stagnation in prices of general consumer chips (such as MCUs, DRAM, NAND, CMOS image sensors), the prices of advanced packaging-related materials, equipment and packaging services have been soaring. According to data from market research institutions, the price of silicon interposers for SoC and HBM heterogeneous integration has increased by more than 70% compared to the same period in 2025, and the price of packaging substrates (ABF substrates) has also reached a historical high.
The chip price transmission chain is clear:
- Upstream equipment and materials: Orders for advanced packaging equipment such as lithography machines (such as ASML hybrid bonding equipment), etching machines, and plating equipment have surged, and the supply chain feedback shows that the delivery period has been extended from 9 months to 15 months.
- Midstream packaging foundry: The capacity utilization rates of advanced packaging lines of TSMC and ASE Group have reached more than 95%, and some customers are willing to pay a premium to lock in capacity.
- Downstream chip finished products: Due to the increase in advanced packaging costs, the terminal selling price of AI accelerators has increased by 15%-20% year-on-year, directly increasing the single-machine cost of cloud data centers.
Behind the supply-demand contradiction: not only capacity, but also technological paradigm shift
Essentially, the shortage of advanced packaging capacity reflects the profound technological paradigm change of the entire semiconductor industry. Traditional Moore's Law is gradually approaching physical limits, and the R&D and tape-out costs of advanced processes below 3nm have become prohibitively high for most manufacturers. In contrast, integrating small chiplets from different process nodes through packaging can reduce design complexity while improving overall yield and performance. The popularization of the Chiplet design concept has promoted high-end packaging from a "supporting role" to a "leading role", and has even been elevated to the same strategic height as Foundries.
At the supply chain level, geopolitical factors are also accelerating the "packaging localization" trend. The United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea have successively included advanced packaging in semiconductor subsidy scopes, trying to break the pattern of "production concentration and packaging dependence" in East Asia. As a global semiconductor heavyweight, Singapore has also increased investment in advanced packaging technology R&D and capacity layout in recent years, attracting manufacturers including GlobalFoundries, GF, and UMC to deepen local cooperation. For semiconductor-related enterprises listed on SGX, the advanced packaging boom cycle is an indispensable valuation catalyst factor.
Industry outlook: high prosperity of advanced packaging will last at least until 2027
Based on the research of multiple market institutions, the global advanced packaging market size in 2026 is expected to exceed 50 billion US dollars, with an annual growth rate of 22%, far exceeding the 8% growth rate of the overall semiconductor packaging market. By 2027, with the intensive production of new packaging lines in global 12-inch wafer fabs, the supply-demand tension is expected to ease, but structural shortages (especially for ultra-high precision and extra-large packaging) will continue.
For purchasers and investors, this means three key action points:
- Lock in long-term supply agreements: If your company relies on AI chips or custom accelerators, it is recommended to sign long-term agreements with packaging foundries in advance to avoid being "jumped" by price increases.
- Pay attention to upstream opportunities in the industry chain: Leading companies in the links of substrates, photoresists, chemicals, printing equipment and other links for advanced packaging will enjoy the dividend of both volume and price increase in the next two years.
- Evaluate valuation of细分 tracks: Equipment, materials, and IDM companies in the SGX technology sector may be re-valued due to the advanced packaging concept, but the risk of over-earning performance needs to be警惕.
In conclusion, advanced packaging is no longer just an additional part of chip manufacturing, but a core asset that redefines "computing power density" and unit R&D investment in the AI era. This round of capacity shortage is not only a microcosm of the differentiation of the semiconductor market, but also indicates the acceleration of the migration of the industry chain value center to the packaging end. Whether industry organizations or exchanges should pay attention to this trend and capture the golden window of industrial upgrading and investment layout.
This article is written based on public information and industry trend analysis and does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and investment requires caution.
