Reshaping Semiconductor Supply-Demand Dynamics: New Investment Logic and Strategic Opportunities in the Second Half of 2026

Reshaping Semiconductor Supply-Demand Dynamics: New Investment Logic and Strategic Opportunities in the Second Half of 2026

In 2026, the global semiconductor industry is experiencing an unprecedented reshaping of supply-demand dynamics. This transformation is driven not only by traditional cyclical factors but also by multiple forces including AI technology explosion, geopolitical tensions, and industrial chain restructuring. For investors, understanding the logic behind this structural change and grasping the new investment paradigm in the semiconductor industry will be key to achieving excess returns in the post-pandemic era.

Structural Shift in Supply-Demand Imbalance

The semiconductor supply-demand relationship in the second half of 2026 presents unprecedented complexity. According to industry data, the divergence between mature and advanced process nodes is increasingly evident, creating a "dual-track" scenario. On one hand, advanced process capacity remains tight, especially for high-end chips used in AI training, with lead times generally exceeding 6 months. On the other hand, mature process capacity faces relative oversupply, with inventory levels in some sectors still at historical highs.

This structural differentiation stems from multiple factors working in concert. First, the explosive growth of AI technology has created strong demand for high-end chips, particularly GPU chips used in large model training, with demand growth far exceeding industry expectations. Second, traditional application areas such as automotive electronics and industrial control continue to show steady demand growth for mature process chips. Additionally, the geographical redistribution of global semiconductor capacity is adding complexity to the supply-demand relationship.

Industry Chain Restructuring Driven by Technological Changes

The iteration of semiconductor technology is fundamentally changing traditional supply-demand dynamics. Against the backdrop of slowing Moore's Law, advanced packaging technologies like Chiplet and 3D packaging have become key paths to improving chip performance while also altering traditional supply-demand balance. In 2026, the tightness of advanced packaging capacity has even exceeded that of some advanced process nodes, becoming a new bottleneck constraining chip supply.

Meanwhile, the rise of open-source architectures like RISC-V is reshaping the global chip design ecosystem. Data shows that by 2026, the penetration rate of RISC-V architecture server-level chips has exceeded 5%. Although this proportion is not high, the growth rate is remarkable. This open-source model lowers the barrier to chip design, changing traditional supply-demand relationships and creating new opportunities for investors.

Furthermore, the rapid development of third-generation semiconductor materials like GaN and SiC is also changing the supply-demand landscape in the power semiconductor sector. The application of these materials in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and other fields continues to expand, with the supply-demand relationship for related chips shifting from oversupply to tightness, becoming new growth points in the semiconductor industry.

Reshaping of Supply-Demand Dynamics by Policy Environment

Global semiconductor industry policies are profoundly affecting supply-demand dynamics. Major economies including the United States, European Union, and China have successively introduced large-scale subsidy policies to encourage domestic semiconductor industry development. These policies have not only changed capacity layouts but also impacted the stability of global semiconductor supply chains.

In 2026, global semiconductor equipment lead times have significantly shortened, a change mainly attributed to accelerated domestic substitution and improved process yields. Data shows that the domesticization rate of semiconductor equipment in mainland China has exceeded 30%, reaching over 50% in some sectors. This change has not only alleviated supply chain pressure but also altered the global semiconductor equipment supply-demand relationship.

Meanwhile, significant changes have also occurred in the semiconductor materials sector. Silicon wafer prices have increased for the first time in three years, marking the end of the deflation era for semiconductor materials. This change stems from material demand growth driven by global semiconductor capacity expansion and rising costs from increased environmental requirements. The restructuring at the materials level is reshaping the entire semiconductor industry's cost structure, thereby affecting supply-demand balance.

Differentiated Investment Opportunities in Sub-sectors

Different sub-sectors in the semiconductor industry show distinctly different supply-demand dynamics, providing differentiated investment opportunities for investors.

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• AI Chip Sector: Demand for AI training chips remains strong, with the tight supply-demand situation unlikely to ease in the short term. Leading companies with technical barriers and scale advantages are expected to achieve excess profits. Meanwhile, edge AI chip shipments have exceeded cloud AI chips for the first time, a trend that will drive growth in related industrial chains.
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• Automotive Chip Sector: With the continuous increase in new energy vehicle penetration, demand for automotive-grade chips maintains strong growth. Especially high-performance computing chips and power semiconductors used in autonomous driving continue to face tight supply-demand relationships, with related companies expected to gain pricing power.
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• Memory Chip Sector: Driven by AI demand, DRAM contract prices have increased by more than two quarters cumulatively, with supply-demand imbalance likely to continue until 2027. Meanwhile, new memory technologies such as MRAM and ReRAM are continuously emerging, providing new opportunities for investors.
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• Analog Chip Sector: Inventory destocking is nearing completion, with PMIC and signal chain chip prices bottoming out. A supply-demand inflection point is expected in the second half of 2026. Demand recovery in industrial control, automotive electronics, and other sectors will drive the analog chip industry out of its downturn.
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Restructuring of Investment Logic and Investment Strategies

The investment logic in the semiconductor industry is undergoing profound changes. The traditional "cyclical investment" model is being replaced by "structural investment", requiring investors to pay more attention to long-term factors such as technological changes, policy environment, and corporate competitiveness.

First, the shift from "process scaling" to "system innovation" is reshaping investment logic. As Moore's Law slows, the space for improving performance through simple process scaling is limited. System innovation, architectural optimization, and advanced packaging have become key paths to improving chip performance. Investors need to focus more on companies' innovation capabilities in these areas.

Second, the shift from "general-purpose to application-specific" is changing the competitive landscape of the chip industry. Market growth for general-purpose chips is slowing, while demand for application-specific chips for particular applications is growing rapidly. This shift requires investors to focus more on companies' differentiated competitive capabilities and vertical integration capabilities.

Finally, the shift from "globalization to regionalization" is reshaping the global semiconductor industry chain. Under geopolitical tensions, the trend of regionalization and localization of the semiconductor industry chain is evident. Investors need to pay more attention to companies' global layout capabilities and regional adaptability.

Risk Warnings and Investment Recommendations

Despite the broad prospects in the semiconductor industry, investors should remain vigilant about multiple risks. First, global economic downturn pressures may affect semiconductor demand growth. Second, accelerated technological iteration may cause existing technologies to become obsolete quickly. Third, geopolitical tensions may exacerbate supply chain risks. Finally, increased industry competition may lead to profit margin declines.

Based on the above analysis, we offer the following investment recommendations:

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• Focus on leading companies in high-growth sectors such as AI chips, automotive chips, and third-generation semiconductors;
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• Position in leading enterprises of sub-sectors with core technical barriers and differentiated competitive advantages;
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• Pay attention to companies with first-mover advantages in emerging technologies such as advanced packaging and Chiplet;
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• Grasp investment opportunities in domestic substitution in upstream sectors such as semiconductor equipment and materials;
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• Focus on investment opportunities in industrial chains related to open-source ecosystems like RISC-V.
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Conclusion

The semiconductor industry in the second half of 2026 is at a critical period of supply-demand restructuring. Multiple factors including technological changes, policy environment, and industrial chain restructuring are working together to push the semiconductor industry into a new development stage. For investors, understanding the logic behind this structural change and grasping the new investment paradigm will be key to achieving excess returns in the post-pandemic era.

In the future, the investment logic of the semiconductor industry will shift from traditional "cyclical investment" to "structural investment", requiring investors to pay more attention to long-term factors such as technological changes, policy environment, and corporate competitiveness. Meanwhile, the differentiated development of different sub-sectors also provides diversified investment opportunities for investors.

Against the backdrop of reshaping the global semiconductor industry landscape, companies with core technologies, differentiated competitive advantages, and global layout advantages will have greater development space, bringing long-term stable returns to investors. Therefore, the semiconductor industry remains one of the most attractive tracks in global technology investment, worthy of long-term attention and positioning by investors.